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Oct/Nov/Dec 2011

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Asian Markets: Sunrise For China?

Jürg Rupp, Executive Editor

O ver the past decade, China has become the textile powerhouse of the world. Exports have soared by double digits every year. But China's textile industry had a tough year in 2008 with its first decline in a decade, and the government is drafting a stimulus package to boost sales and create jobs.

In 2008, China's textile and apparel exports were worth US$185 billion - 8.2-percent more than in 2007. Higher labor costs, the renminbi's rising value and weakened export demand are the major reasons for pessimism about the future of its textile industry. But with some 20 million jobs in that sector, China wants and needs growth in textile exports. The Obama administration said China's trade surplus is unacceptable, and it wants Beijing to help balance flows. But China opposes any return to quotas on its textile exports and seeks steady growth in those exports despite weak prospects for 2009.

The game in the world market is, "Who's to blame for the financial crisis?"  The crisis has been attributed to a combination of macroeconomic imbalances and a total lack of risk and money management by government agencies. For some experts, strengthening existing global financial institutions such as the International Monetary Fund is a key factor in helping the many countries that either are in crisis or could be hit by the global recession. However, a new attitude in the financial world - more responsibility, which means less gambling - would be more helpful.

Emerging from the crisis requires actions and not blame. It has been common to blame China for any problem, which leads to more protectionism. Policy makers in many countries have unveiled stimulus packages to either respond to the crisis or provide ammunition for defense in the future.

Much of the debate has moved on to creating a new regulatory environment, and there is a need for Asia to boost domestic demand. Since 1999, Chinese authorities have promoted private consumption as a major driver of growth, along with investment and exports, to help reduce economic volatility and uncertainty. Progress has been slow, but after weeks of bad news, it seems there is some hope - at least for China. Many Chinese textile manufacturers seem fed up with price discussions abroad and are selling domestically.

April/May/June 2009

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亚洲市场:中国的曙光?

中国在过去十年间,蔚为全球的纺织厂,每年的外贸额均取得双位数字的增长。不过,中国纺织业于2008年遇上困境,在十年以来首度呈现衰退现象。中国政府现阶段正草拟刺激方案,以扩大销售额、创造新职位。

中国的纺织及成衣外贸总额,于2008年为1,850亿美元,较2007年增长8.2%。但是劳工成本趋高、人民币币值上扬,加上外贸需求收缩,造成了纺织业界对前景感到悲观。不可忘记的是,中 国纺织业维系着2千万劳工的生计,中国必须确保纺织品外贸额持续增长。奥巴马政府声称难以容忍中国的贸易盈余,要求北京政府改善两国间的贸易逆差,但是中国拒绝再次就出口纺织品实施配额制度,并 致力在前景暗淡的2009年争取平稳的增长。

按现时全球市场的游戏方式,"谁是金融风暴的罪魁祸首?"国际间均认为是宏观经济体系失衡,加上政府机构的风险与金融管理失效所致。有专家指出,加强现有的全球金融机构(如国际货币基金)的效能,是 拯救陷于风暴国家及可能遭受全球衰退影响的国家的主要出路。不过,其实金融世界如能采取新的态度处理事务──责任先行,亦即减少赌博风险,效果应该更为显著。

要从危机中重新站起来,首要是付诸行动,而非单只埋怨。业界一般认为中国是顽强保护主义的源头,所以业内一旦出现问题,中国就走不出始作俑者的指责。现时,多国的决策者已制定刺激方案,以 应付金融危机引发的问题,或为预防未来的困境作好准备。

国际间的讨论重点,已渐次进入建立新规范局面的议程,而亚洲各国亦必须扩大内需。自1999年开始,中国政府已将国内的消耗力,提升为促进增长的主要动力,再配合投资及出口贸易,务 求减少经济上的跌宕及不明朗因素。尽管进展缓慢,但多月来坏消息不断之后,看来现时总算已露出一线曙光──最少中国情况如是。中国的纺织品制造商似乎已对海外不断的讨价还价感到厌倦,转而于国内销售商品。

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